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    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.25
   },
   {
    "step": "+ sovereign tier",
    "end-2027": 0.1977,
    "end-2028": 0.3722,
    "end-2029": 0.4774,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.4256,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.06758640525258891,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.25
   },
   {
    "step": "+ flighty-only disillusionment events",
    "end-2027": 0.2222,
    "end-2028": 0.399,
    "end-2029": 0.5006,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.4568,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.08585430967363356,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.25
   },
   {
    "step": "+ power ceiling (all on)",
    "end-2027": 0.1767,
    "end-2028": 0.3367,
    "end-2029": 0.4449,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.3876,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.05191308400536532,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.5
   }
  ],
  "leave_one_out": {
   "all on": {
    "end-2027": 0.1767,
    "end-2028": 0.3367,
    "end-2029": 0.4449,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.3876,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.05191308400536532,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.5
   },
   "without tiers (single tier, keeps power)": {
    "end-2027": 0.1666,
    "end-2028": 0.3432,
    "end-2029": 0.4693,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.3926,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.046966812459688645,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.5
   },
   "without sovereign": {
    "end-2027": 0.1862,
    "end-2028": 0.3523,
    "end-2029": 0.4611,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.403,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.055992990661024256,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.5
   },
   "without flighty events": {
    "end-2027": 0.159,
    "end-2028": 0.3146,
    "end-2029": 0.4206,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.3594,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.038250553052401826,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.5
   },
   "without power ceiling": {
    "end-2027": 0.2222,
    "end-2028": 0.399,
    "end-2029": 0.5006,
    "market_crash_end-2028": 0.4568,
    "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.08585430967363356,
    "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.25
   }
  },
  "power_only": {
   "end-2027": 0.1666,
   "end-2028": 0.3432,
   "end-2029": 0.4693,
   "market_crash_end-2028": 0.3926,
   "median_shortfall_end-2028": 0.046966812459688645,
   "median_bust_date_given_bust_by_2030": 2028.5
  }
 },
 "softer_capex_plan": {
  "end-2027": 0.17785,
  "end-2028": 0.30175,
  "end-2029": 0.39295
 },
 "backtest": [
  {
   "case": "Telecom / dot-com",
   "as_of": "Dec 1999",
   "history": "Telecom investment boom began ~1996 -> 3 yrs in; earlier booms busted after a median 5 yrs",
   "gsy": "Nasdaq ~+160% in 2 yrs, ~+105% net of S&P -> 53-80%",
   "rzone": "Corporate credit growth and equity prices both high -> yes",
   "fundamentals": "Capacity built for traffic 'doubling every 100 days' (~4x/yr) vs ~2x/yr actual -> large shortfall",
   "signal": "High on all four",
   "outcome": "Market crash (Nasdaq -78%) and economic bust (2001-02)"
  },
  {
   "case": "Cloud buildout",
   "as_of": "Oct 2018",
   "history": "Hyperscaler capex ~0.4% of GDP -> below the boom threshold",
   "gsy": "Big-tech 2-yr run-up well under +100% net of market -> base rate ~14%",
   "rzone": "Mostly cash-funded, credit growth normal -> no",
   "fundamentals": "Cloud revenue growing ~40%, capacity tracked demand",
   "signal": "Low on all four",
   "outcome": "No bust; SOX fell ~25% in Q4 2018, short of 40%"
  },
  {
   "case": "Cloud software",
   "as_of": "Dec 2020",
   "history": "Not an investment boom",
   "gsy": "Cloud-software stocks well over +100% in 2 yrs -> 53-80%",
   "rzone": "Equity high, credit growth not top quintile -> no",
   "fundamentals": "Revenue grew; no capacity overhang",
   "signal": "High for a market crash, low for an economic bust",
   "outcome": "Market crash (cloud indices -60%+ in 2022), no economic bust"
  }
 ],
 "scorecard": [
  [
   "Capex vs revenue",
   "Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft spend 102% of cloud revenue on capex (2026)",
   "Telecom capex ~1.4% of GDP at its 2000 peak; AI capex 1.8% of US GDP in 2026",
   "Above telecom peak"
  ],
  [
   "Debt funding",
   "33-37% of hyperscaler capex debt-funded; ~$660B of off-balance-sheet leases",
   "Telecom 1997-2001 was largely debt-financed",
   "Rising"
  ],
  [
   "Credit growth",
   "Big-5 issuance $121B in 2025, >4x the 2020-24 average; AI private credit ~$0 -> $200B+",
   "R-zone: top-quintile credit growth",
   "In the zone"
  ],
  [
   "Price run-up",
   "SOX +181% in 12 months to June 2026",
   "GSY run-up: >=100% in 2 years",
   "In the zone"
  ],
  [
   "Volatility",
   "SOX: nine 5%+ up-days in 60 sessions (Jun 2026), matched in Jan 2009 and exceeded only in the dot-com era",
   "GSY: rising volatility precedes crashes",
   "Warning"
  ],
  [
   "Issuance",
   "CoreWeave $3.7B convertible (Sep 2026), lab IPO filings",
   "GSY: issuance rises before crashes",
   "Warning"
  ],
  [
   "Credit spreads",
   "Oracle 5-yr CDS record 227bp; CoreWeave loan SOFR+550bp with covenants",
   "Spreads widen before busts",
   "Widening"
  ],
  [
   "Crowding",
   "53% of fund managers: chips are the most crowded trade (Sep 2026)",
   "Crowding precedes sharp reversals",
   "Warning"
  ],
  [
   "Rates",
   "10-yr Treasury 5.29%, highest since 2007",
   "Tightening often triggers busts",
   "Warning"
  ]
 ],
 "booms": [
  {
   "boom": "US canals",
   "onset": 1834,
   "bust": 1837,
   "gap": 3,
   "note": "Panic of 1837; state canal-debt defaults 1841-42"
  },
  {
   "boom": "UK railway mania",
   "onset": 1844,
   "bust": 1847,
   "gap": 3,
   "note": "Railway share crash and panic of 1847"
  },
  {
   "boom": "US railroads I",
   "onset": 1868,
   "bust": 1873,
   "gap": 5,
   "note": "Panic of 1873 (Jay Cooke & Co.)"
  },
  {
   "boom": "US railroads II",
   "onset": 1879,
   "bust": 1884,
   "gap": 5,
   "note": "Panic of 1884; receiverships peak 1893"
  },
  {
   "boom": "US electric utilities",
   "onset": 1922,
   "bust": 1929,
   "gap": 7,
   "note": "Utility holding-company collapse 1929-32"
  },
  {
   "boom": "US telecom / fiber",
   "onset": 1996,
   "bust": 2001,
   "gap": 5,
   "note": "Telecom Act 1996; default wave 2001-02 (WorldCom, Global Crossing)"
  },
  {
   "boom": "US housing",
   "onset": 2002,
   "bust": 2007,
   "gap": 5,
   "note": "Subprime crisis 2007-09"
  },
  {
   "boom": "US shale oil",
   "onset": 2011,
   "bust": 2015,
   "gap": 4,
   "note": "Oil-price collapse late 2014; shale defaults 2015-16"
  }
 ],
 "expected_damage": {
  "model_d": {
   "n": 10000,
   "p_bust_outcome": 0.2743,
   "p_sp500_30": 0.2396,
   "expected_credit_losses": 56.74278907450065,
   "p_credit_gt_100": 0.2018,
   "p_credit_gt_250": 0.1162,
   "expected_gdp_hit": 1.5580999491665377,
   "p_neocloud_default": 0.2213,
   "p_lab_default": 0.2204,
   "p_private_credit_default": 0.0126,
   "p_bank_default": 0.0,
   "expected_bank_loss": 13.905978833189915,
   "expected_pension_insurer_loss": 30.44646548583701,
   "exceedance": [
    {
     "loss": 0,
     "p": 0.8886
    },
    {
     "loss": 10,
     "p": 0.2872
    },
    {
     "loss": 25,
     "p": 0.2288
    },
    {
     "loss": 50,
     "p": 0.2213
    },
    {
     "loss": 100,
     "p": 0.2018
    },
    {
     "loss": 150,
     "p": 0.1351
    },
    {
     "loss": 200,
     "p": 0.133
    },
    {
     "loss": 250,
     "p": 0.1162
    },
    {
     "loss": 300,
     "p": 0.0789
    },
    {
     "loss": 350,
     "p": 0.0355
    }
   ]
  },
  "model_d_legal": {
   "n": 10000,
   "expected_credit_losses_booked": 58.70925825164161,
   "expected_frozen_peak": 53.2805,
   "p90_frozen_peak": 260.0,
   "p_frozen_gt_100": 0.2054,
   "p_bust_outcome": 0.2717
  },
  "model_f": {
   "n": 400,
   "p_neocloud_default": 0.3225,
   "p_lab_default": 0.0025,
   "p_fund_failure": 0.2375,
   "p_bank_failure": 0.0,
   "expected_credit_losses": 22.76825,
   "p_credit_gt_50": 0.2175,
   "p_credit_gt_100": 0.0625,
   "p_sp500_30": 0.3,
   "p_unemp_6": 0.0,
   "expected_unemp_peak": 4.83045,
   "expected_sovereign_spend": 35.18125,
   "expected_frozen_claims_peak": 45.77375,
   "p90_frozen_claims_peak": 140.22000000000006,
   "mean_cfo_actions": 12.235,
   "expected_debt_exchange_haircut": 4.0186,
   "expected_equity_injected": 1.678425,
   "expected_interest_credited_to_lenders": 82.85,
   "expected_household_credit_losses": 22.189,
   "sfc_max_claim_imbalance": 0.0,
   "sfc_max_networth_error": 0.0,
   "network_top1_fund_share": 0.4509775,
   "exceedance": [
    {
     "loss": 0,
     "p": 0.5525
    },
    {
     "loss": 10,
     "p": 0.3625
    },
    {
     "loss": 25,
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    },
    {
     "loss": 50,
     "p": 0.2175
    },
    {
     "loss": 75,
     "p": 0.125
    },
    {
     "loss": 100,
     "p": 0.0625
    },
    {
     "loss": 125,
     "p": 0.005
    },
    {
     "loss": 150,
     "p": 0.0
    }
   ]
  },
  "model_f_v1": {
   "n": 400,
   "p_neocloud_default": 0.4475,
   "p_lab_default": 0.0175,
   "p_fund_failure": 0.0375,
   "p_bank_failure": 0.0,
   "expected_credit_losses": 30.9175,
   "p_credit_gt_50": 0.3225,
   "p_credit_gt_100": 0.0875,
   "p_sp500_30": 0.4075,
   "p_unemp_6": 0.3025,
   "expected_unemp_peak": 5.2639,
   "expected_sovereign_spend": 41.373000000000005,
   "expected_frozen_claims_peak": 21.840999999999998,
   "p90_frozen_claims_peak": 64.5,
   "mean_cfo_actions": 0.0,
   "expected_debt_exchange_haircut": 0.0,
   "expected_equity_injected": 0.0,
   "expected_interest_credited_to_lenders": 0.0,
   "expected_household_credit_losses": 0.0,
   "sfc_max_claim_imbalance": 0.0,
   "sfc_max_networth_error": 0.0,
   "network_top1_fund_share": 0.3591425,
   "exceedance": [
    {
     "loss": 0,
     "p": 0.5575
    },
    {
     "loss": 10,
     "p": 0.415
    },
    {
     "loss": 25,
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    {
     "loss": 50,
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    {
     "loss": 75,
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    {
     "loss": 100,
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    {
     "loss": 125,
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    {
     "loss": 150,
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   ]
  },
  "model_f_by_shock": [
   {
    "shock": "0-10%",
    "n": 263,
    "p_neocloud_default": 0.053,
    "p_lab_default": 0.0,
    "p_fund_failure": 0.068,
    "median_amplification": 2.51,
    "median_excess_credit_losses": 0.0,
    "p90_excess_credit_losses": 12.8,
    "median_sp500_dd": 0.011,
    "median_unemp_peak": 4.32,
    "median_sovereign_spend": 0.0,
    "p_bank_failure": 0.0
   },
   {
    "shock": "10-20%",
    "n": 43,
    "p_neocloud_default": 0.512,
    "p_lab_default": 0.0,
    "p_fund_failure": 0.395,
    "median_amplification": 1.83,
    "median_excess_credit_losses": 15.8,
    "p90_excess_credit_losses": 66.4,
    "median_sp500_dd": 0.307,
    "median_unemp_peak": 5.23,
    "median_sovereign_spend": 3.8,
    "p_bank_failure": 0.0
   },
   {
    "shock": "20-30%",
    "n": 27,
    "p_neocloud_default": 1.0,
    "p_lab_default": 0.0,
    "p_fund_failure": 0.519,
    "median_amplification": 1.63,
    "median_excess_credit_losses": 57.0,
    "p90_excess_credit_losses": 100.6,
    "median_sp500_dd": 0.388,
    "median_unemp_peak": 5.58,
    "median_sovereign_spend": 70.7,
    "p_bank_failure": 0.0
   },
   {
    "shock": "30-40%",
    "n": 27,
    "p_neocloud_default": 0.963,
    "p_lab_default": 0.037,
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    "median_amplification": 1.37,
    "median_excess_credit_losses": 48.8,
    "p90_excess_credit_losses": 97.5,
    "median_sp500_dd": 0.417,
    "median_unemp_peak": 5.67,
    "median_sovereign_spend": 114.3,
    "p_bank_failure": 0.0
   },
   {
    "shock": "40-56%",
    "n": 31,
    "p_neocloud_default": 1.0,
    "p_lab_default": 0.0,
    "p_fund_failure": 0.806,
    "median_amplification": 1.22,
    "median_excess_credit_losses": 91.1,
    "p90_excess_credit_losses": 113.0,
    "median_sp500_dd": 0.453,
    "median_unemp_peak": 5.77,
    "median_sovereign_spend": 217.0,
    "p_bank_failure": 0.0
   }
  ],
  "p_bust_used": 0.29499490934605777,
  "p_shortfall_at_least": {
   "15%": 0.29499490934605777,
   "20%": 0.24242845838559543,
   "25%": 0.2004449797394598,
   "30%": 0.1649724243895869,
   "40%": 0.1086170080326372
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 },
 "mapping_sensitivity": {
  "p_neocloud_failure_at_15pct": {
   "central": 0.656,
   "alternative": 0.20961842105263156
  },
  "credit_to_bust_ratio": {
   "central": 0.9072490181963904,
   "alternative": 1.1623928924931015
  },
  "market_crash_line": {
   "central": [
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    0.125
   ],
   "alternative": [
    0.1615,
    0.197
   ]
  },
  "end_2028": {
   "credit_implied_bust": {
    "central": 0.10903495973431926,
    "alternative": 0.13969864908799356
   },
   "fundamentals_market_crash": {
    "central": 0.3758116883116883,
    "alternative": 0.30352579894810416
   },
   "economic_bust_combined": {
    "median": 0.30919619693855804,
    "p10": 0.23433445729321972,
    "p90": 0.39773505134945114,
    "mean": 0.3132209690119332
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   "market_crash_combined": {
    "median": 0.49077483688894424,
    "p10": 0.3866659237158611,
    "p90": 0.5828693442593669,
    "mean": 0.4871422789500692
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  },
  "model_f_alternative": {
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   "p_neocloud_default": 0.27,
   "p_lab_default": 0.0,
   "p_fund_failure": 0.1875,
   "p_bank_failure": 0.0,
   "expected_credit_losses": 17.590500000000002,
   "p_credit_gt_50": 0.15,
   "p_credit_gt_100": 0.035,
   "p_sp500_30": 0.245,
   "p_unemp_6": 0.0,
   "expected_unemp_peak": 4.735424999999999,
   "expected_sovereign_spend": 23.045749999999998,
   "expected_frozen_claims_peak": 36.545500000000004,
   "p90_frozen_claims_peak": 140.0,
   "mean_cfo_actions": 10.33,
   "expected_debt_exchange_haircut": 3.55775,
   "expected_equity_injected": 1.6021749999999997,
   "expected_interest_credited_to_lenders": 85.43324999999999,
   "expected_household_credit_losses": 17.5255,
   "sfc_max_claim_imbalance": 0.0,
   "sfc_max_networth_error": 0.0,
   "network_top1_fund_share": 0.4509775,
   "exceedance": [
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     "loss": 0,
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    },
    {
     "loss": 10,
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    },
    {
     "loss": 25,
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    },
    {
     "loss": 50,
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    },
    {
     "loss": 75,
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    {
     "loss": 100,
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    {
     "loss": 125,
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    },
    {
     "loss": 150,
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    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "stall_decomposition": {
  "with_stalls": {
   "end-2027": 0.176675,
   "end-2028": 0.33675,
   "end-2029": 0.44485
  },
  "no_stalls": {
   "end-2027": 0.0747,
   "end-2028": 0.18675,
   "end-2029": 0.266675
  }
 },
 "mid_2027": {
  "methods": {
   "fundamentals": 0.07544885887772193,
   "history": 0.14176202580051672,
   "market": 0.03888658995069792,
   "indicators": 0.2212853907324947
  },
  "fundamentals_point": 0.07515,
  "combined": {
   "median": 0.09685873792525874,
   "p10": 0.06380027813820362,
   "p90": 0.1462982220681667,
   "mean": 0.10187921424420615
  }
 }
}