cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you use this software, the results or the paper, please cite it as below. The work was written by Claude (Anthropic) at the direction of Yassin Khalil."
title: "When the Buildout Breaks: models, simulations and dashboard for the probability and damage of an AI investment bust"
type: software
version: "2.0.0"
date-released: "2026-10-06"
license: Apache-2.0
repository-code: "https://github.com/YassinKkhalil4/when-the-buildout-breaks"
authors:
  - given-names: "Yassin"
    family-names: "Khalil"
abstract: "Four independent estimates of the odds of an AI market crash and an economic bust (a revenue simulation, history, market prices and warning indicators), pooled by logarithmic opinion pooling; a 12-sector contagion network (Model D); and a weekly agent-based model of firms, lenders and policy (Model F) with nine switchable mechanisms. Not investment advice."
keywords:
  - AI investment boom
  - financial stability
  - contagion
  - agent-based model
  - crash probability
preferred-citation:
  type: report
  title: "When the Buildout Breaks: How Likely Is an AI Bust, and How Bad Would It Be?"
  authors:
    - given-names: "Yassin"
      family-names: "Khalil"
  year: 2026
  month: 10
  notes: "Working paper, Edition 2. Written by Claude (Anthropic)."