The live-data pipeline and dashboard

Source: ai_bust_live.py, dashboard.html, manual_inputs.json.

fetchers  ->  snapshot  ->  calibration  ->  models  ->  SQLite history  ->  FastAPI + dashboard

1. What is live and what is not

Model G (end-customer AI revenue against the capex plan) is not live: it needs lab-revenue data that no free feed provides, so it stays at its paper calibration.

2. Fetchers and parsers

Network access goes through one injectable function http_get(url, headers) so tests never touch the network. The User-Agent comes from the environment variable AI_BUST_UA (SEC requires a descriptive one, "Your Name your@email").

• Treasury (parse_treasury_csv): newest row of the daily par yield curve for the current year; columns 3 Mo, 2 Yr, 10 Yr, 30 Yr in percent, divided by 100. Fallback FRED series DGS3MO, DGS10, DGS2 (. means missing).
• Prices (parse_stooq_csv, parse_yahoo_chart, price_metrics): 420 days of daily closes. Symbols: SOX (^sox/^SOX), NVDA, SPX (^spx/^GSPC), MSFT, ORCL, CRWV. From the series:
  \[\text{drawdown}=1-\frac{\text{last}}{\max\{\text{close since }2026\text{-}05\text{-}01\}},\qquad \text{vol}_{30}=\text{stdev}(\ln r_{t})\sqrt{252}\ \text{over the last 30 returns}.\]
• SEC companyfacts (parse_companyfacts): for seven companies (CoreWeave, Oracle, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia) by CIK.
• Flows (capex, revenue, interest) as trailing twelve months: last fiscal year plus the current year-to-date minus the prior-year year-to-date when both exist, else the last fiscal year. Several XBRL tags are tried per field, and the tag with the most recent period end wins (an earlier version took the first tag with any annual data and silently picked up tags that filers had retired years earlier).
• Balance sheet items (cash, debt, lease liabilities): the latest 10-K/10-Q instant value across candidate tags.
• Debt maturity ladder: six XBRL tags (next twelve months, years two to five, after year five), $B.
• Failure handling (build_snapshot): every source reports {ok, url, error, fetched_at}. A failed source falls back to the previous snapshot's value and is marked stale; if no source at all is reachable the refresh raises.

3. Calibration: snapshot → model inputs (calibrate)

Every input carries a provenance tag: manual, feed, recorded, or paper default (no data).

Part I inputs (written into ai_bust_probability.LIVE):

Model F overrides: policy rate rf0 = the 3-month yield; hyperscaler 2027 capex plan = the manual guidance if set (700 by default), else the filings-based estimate \(\sum \text{TTM capex}\times(1+g)\) clipped to 0.6–1.5× the paper value; neocloud maturity profile = CoreWeave's ladder as shares of years 1–4 and years 5+ (nc_maturity_profile).

Diagnostics (shown, not fed back): CoreWeave debt/revenue and implied interest rate against the model's NC-1 values.

4. Models and storage

run_models sets the live inputs, calls ai_bust_probability.run_live (10,000 Model G paths; 4,000 Model D draws; 40 Model F draws) and restores the defaults. Each run is stored with its snapshot, calibration and results in a local SQLite database (live_history.db, table runs). Do not publish that file: it contains price and filing data from third-party providers.

5. API and dashboard

FastAPI app app:

AI_BUST_REFRESH_MIN=60 also refreshes every 60 minutes. AI_BUST_DB, AI_BUST_MANUAL override file locations.

Security. The app has no authentication and the refresh endpoint triggers computation and outbound requests. Bind it to 127.0.0.1 and reach it over an SSH tunnel; if you publish it, put a reverse proxy in front that allows only GET and HEAD and blocks /api/refresh, /docs, /redoc and /openapi.json (see deploy/Caddyfile.example).

6. Tests

python -m unittest test_ai_bust_live runs ten offline tests on parsers (Treasury, FRED, Stooq, Yahoo, companyfacts), the drawdown calculation, calibration against a recorded snapshot (it reproduces the paper's ranges), stale-source fallback and a fake-server snapshot. The payloads are synthetic, in the providers' documented layouts; they do not prove the parsers survive format changes.

7. What a recorded snapshot is

fixtures/snapshot_recorded_2026-10-05.json reassembles the figures used in the paper (5 October 2026) from news and company disclosures. It is not a feed pull, and its CoreWeave maturity ladder is a placeholder. Runs from it are labelled mode="recorded" everywhere.